Outlook and Recommendation
The EUR/USD skirted around the 1.30 price level throughout the month, unable to gain any significant traction with Spain and Greece keeping the euro down. The pair closed the month at 1.2967. The greenback remained weak after the injection of stimulus from the Fed earlier in the month. While US eco data is beginning to show positive signs, there is no momentum yet for the dollar. The US economy continues its slow expansion with Q3 annualized GDP coming in at 2% q/q slightly above expectations, mostly due to a temporary pick-up in government spending and military outlays. Consumption was robust, increasing by 2% q/q annualized, despite higher inflation and gas prices. Going forward, consumption and retail sales may come under pressure with the effects of Hurricane Sandy and shop closures across the northeast. The Hurricane will also have an impact on industries such as utilities, refineries and transportation, helping to moderate GDP growth to about 1.5% q/q annualized in Q4, before clean-up and reconstruction provides a boost to GDP going into next year.
Highest:1.3139
|
Lowest:1.2804
|
Difference:0.0335
|
Average:1.2976
|
Change %:0.62
|
Debt sustainability concerns remain centered on the ability of Spain and Greece to refinance their debt obligations. The euro zone will close the year in recession with the prospects of a timid recovery beginning in 2013, although the growth risks are to the downside. As a result of persistent debt distress, weak growth prospects and significant uncertainty, we are calling for renewed weakness for the EUR
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Central Bank Name: European Central Bank
Date of next meeting or last meeting: Nov 08, 2012
Current Rate: 0.750%
Economic events for the month of November affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Nov 1
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
48.1
|
48.4
|
8:15am
|
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
|
139K
|
162K
| |
8:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
371K
|
369K
| |
10:00am
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.4
|
70.3
| |
10:00am
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
Nov 2
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Construction PMI
|
49.1
|
49.5
|
8:30am
|
USD
|
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
123K
|
114K
| |
8:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9%
|
7.8%
| |
Nov 5
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Services PMI
|
52.2
| |
11:00am
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
55.1
| ||
Nov 6
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing Production m/m
|
-1.1%
| |
Nov 7
|
4:00am
|
CHF
|
Foreign Currency Reserves
|
429.3B
| |
4:15am
|
CHF
|
CPI m/m
|
0.3%
| ||
Nov 8
|
8:00am
|
GBP
|
Asset Purchase Facility
|
375B
| |
8:00am
|
GBP
|
Official Bank Rate
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
| |
8:45am
|
EUR
|
Minimum Bid Rate
|
0.75%
|
0.75%
| |
9:30am
|
USD
|
Trade Balance
|
-44.2B
| ||
Nov 13
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
CPI y/y
| ||
6:00am
|
EUR
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
| |||
6:30am
|
GBP
|
BOE Inflation Report
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core Retail Sales m/m
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
PPI m/m
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Retail Sales m/m
| |||
Nov 15
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales m/m
| ||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core CPI m/m
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
| |||
11:00am
|
USD
|
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
| |||
11:00am
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales
| |||
Nov 20
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Building Permits
| ||
Nov 21
|
5:00am
|
EUR
|
German Ifo Business Climate
| ||
10:30pm
|
CNY
|
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
| |||
Nov 22
|
4:00am
|
EUR
|
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
| ||
4:30am
|
EUR
|
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
| |||
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Public Sector Net Borrowing
| |||
Nov 26
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Revised GDP q/q
| ||
Nov 27
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
| ||
11:00am
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
| |||
11:00am
|
USD
|
New Home Sales
| |||
Nov 29
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Prelim GDP q/q
| ||
11:00am
|
USD
|
Pending Home Sales m/m
| |||
Nov 30
|
9:00pm
|
CNY
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
Click here to read EUR/USD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
