EUR/USD Monthly Fundamental Forecast November 2012

Outlook and Recommendation

The EUR/USD skirted around the 1.30 price level throughout the month, unable to gain any significant traction with Spain and Greece keeping the euro down. The pair closed the month at 1.2967. The greenback remained weak after the injection of stimulus from the Fed earlier in the month. While US eco data is beginning to show positive signs, there is no momentum yet for the dollar. The US economy continues its slow expansion with Q3 annualized GDP coming in at 2% q/q slightly above expectations, mostly due to a temporary pick-up in government spending and military outlays. Consumption was robust, increasing by 2% q/q annualized, despite higher inflation and gas prices. Going forward, consumption and retail sales may come under pressure with the effects of Hurricane Sandy and shop closures across the northeast. The Hurricane will also have an impact on industries such as utilities, refineries and transportation, helping to moderate GDP growth to about 1.5% q/q annualized in Q4, before clean-up and reconstruction provides a boost to GDP going into next year.

Highest:1.3139	Lowest:1.2804	Difference:0.0335	Average:1.2976	Change %:0.62

Debt sustainability concerns remain centered on the ability of Spain and Greece to refinance their debt obligations. The euro zone will close the year in recession with the prospects of a timid recovery beginning in 2013, although the growth risks are to the downside. As a result of persistent debt distress, weak growth prospects and significant uncertainty, we are calling for renewed weakness for the EUR

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.

Central Bank Name: European Central Bank

Date of next meeting or last meeting: Nov 08, 2012

Current Rate: 0.750%

Economic events for the month of November affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Nov 1	5:30am	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	48.1	48.4
	8:15am	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	139K	162K
	8:30am	USD	Unemployment Claims	371K	369K
	10:00am	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	72.4	70.3
	10:00am	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	51.2	51.5
Nov 2	5:30am	GBP	Construction PMI	49.1	49.5
	8:30am	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	123K	114K
	8:30am	USD	Unemployment Rate	7.9%	7.8%
Nov 5	5:30am	GBP	Services PMI		52.2
	11:00am	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI		55.1
Nov 6	5:30am	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m		-1.1%
Nov 7	4:00am	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves		429.3B
	4:15am	CHF	CPI m/m		0.3%
Nov 8	8:00am	GBP	Asset Purchase Facility		375B
	8:00am	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.50%	0.50%
	8:45am	EUR	Minimum Bid Rate	0.75%	0.75%
	9:30am	USD	Trade Balance		-44.2B
Nov 13	5:30am	GBP	CPI y/y
	6:00am	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment
	6:30am	GBP	BOE Inflation Report
	9:30am	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m
	9:30am	USD	PPI m/m
	9:30am	USD	Retail Sales m/m
Nov 15	5:30am	GBP	Retail Sales m/m
	9:30am	USD	Core CPI m/m
	9:30am	USD	Unemployment Claims
	11:00am	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
	11:00am	USD	Existing Home Sales
Nov 20	9:30am	USD	Building Permits
Nov 21	5:00am	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate
	10:30pm	CNY	HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
Nov 22	4:00am	EUR	French Flash Manufacturing PMI
	4:30am	EUR	German Flash Manufacturing PMI
	5:30am	GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing
Nov 26	5:30am	GBP	Revised GDP q/q
Nov 27	9:30am	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
	11:00am	USD	CB Consumer Confidence
	11:00am	USD	New Home Sales
Nov 29	9:30am	USD	Prelim GDP q/q
	11:00am	USD	Pending Home Sales m/m
Nov 30	9:00pm	CNY	Manufacturing PMI

Click here to read EUR/USD Technical Analysis.

Originally posted here