Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:The NZD/USDclosed the week at 0.8159 in the same range it traded at the opening of the week. The kiwi more or less followed global cues all week. This week, the NZD is expected to follow the same movements of the AUD. The Chinese data will give a better understanding of the current Chinese economy, the PMI number will have to be above 49 to generate risk-on trading activity. The bigger risk is if it comes in lower as it will (call) into question the veracity of the data previously released. Last week the Chinese data dump showed that GDP fell to 7.4% as expected but retail sales and manufacturing reported above expectations.
The biggest risk will be the meeting and outcome of the RBA decision this week which might weigh on the NZD.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Oct 19, 2012
|
0.8159
|
0.8194
|
0.8206
|
0.8149
|
-0.43%
|
Oct 18, 2012
|
0.8194
|
0.8216
|
0.8230
|
0.8177
|
-0.27%
|
Oct 17, 2012
|
0.8216
|
0.8174
|
0.8227
|
0.8163
|
0.51%
|
Oct 16, 2012
|
0.8174
|
0.8166
|
0.8182
|
0.8109
|
0.10%
|
Oct 15, 2012
|
0.8166
|
0.8151
|
0.8196
|
0.8131
|
0.20%
|
Otherwise it will be the strength of the USD after the FOMC two day meeting this week. Due to positive eco data in the US, the Feds are expected to hold any additional stimulus at this time, giving the USD additional strengths which might weigh on the kiwi.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 15
|
AUD
|
Home Loans (MoM)
|
1.8%
|
1.4%
|
-0.7%
|
CNY
|
Chinese CPI (YoY)
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
|
2.0%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese PPI (YoY)
|
-3.6%
|
-3.6%
|
-3.5%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese CPI (MoM)
|
0.3%
|
0.4%
|
0.6%
| |
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
-1.6%
|
-1.3%
|
-1.3%
| |
USD
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.6%
|
1.0%
| |
USD
|
Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
| |
USD
|
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
|
-6.2
|
-4.5
|
-10.4
| |
NZD
|
CPI (QoQ)
|
0.3%
|
0.6%
|
0.3%
| |
Oct. 16
|
USD
|
Core CPI (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
USD
|
CPI (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
| |
USD
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
|
90.0B
|
45.3B
|
67.2B
| |
USD
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
|
-1.4%
| |
Oct. 17
|
USD
|
Building Permits
|
0.894M
|
0.810M
|
0.801M
|
USD
|
Housing Starts
|
0.872M
|
0.770M
|
0.758M
| |
Oct. 18
|
AUD
|
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
|
-2.00
|
-2.00
| |
CNY
|
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)
|
20.5%
|
20.2%
|
20.2%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese GDP (YoY)
|
7.4%
|
7.4%
|
7.6%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)
|
9.2%
|
9.0%
|
8.9%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)
|
14.2%
|
13.2%
|
13.2%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
388K
|
365K
|
342K
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3252K
|
3275K
|
3281K
| |
USD
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
|
5.7
|
1.0
|
-1.9
| |
Oct. 19
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales
|
4.75M
|
4.75M
|
4.82M
|
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest:0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.
Average:0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest:0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 24
|
01:30
|
AUD
|
1.1%
|
0.5%
| |
01:30
|
AUD
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| ||
02:45
|
CNY
|
47.90
| |||
15:00
|
USD
|
385K
|
373K
| ||
21:00
|
NZD
|
2.50%
|
2.50%
| ||
Oct. 25
|
22:45
|
NZD
|
-825M
|
-789M
| |
Oct. 26
|
00:30
|
JPY
|
-0.5%
|
-0.4%
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 22 09:10 Norway
Oct 23 08:30 Spain
Oct 23 14:30 UK
Oct 23 17:00 US
Oct 24 09:10 Sweden
Oct 24 09:30 Germany
Oct 24 14:30 Sweden
Oct 24 15:30 Italy
Oct 24 16:30 US
Oct 25 00:30 Japan
Oct 25 09:10 Sweden
Oct 25 15:30 Italy
Oct 25 17:00 US
Oct 26 09:10 Italy
Click here for updated NZD/USD News.
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