Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/JPY climbed from its opening on Monday at 101.51 top close the week at 103.28. The JPY weakened all week as the BoJ meeting approached. The euro on the other hand strengthened on hopes for Spain and Greece. The EU Summit once again disappointed traders as the closing release said little of any action. This was followed by statements from the Prime Minister of Spain saying that at this time he would not be asking for a bailout. Dire warnings were also issued by Angela Merkel in regards to the banking supervisor program. Greece was given additional time, but riots in the streets of Athens said this was not enough to help the citizens.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Oct 19, 2012
|
103.28
|
103.66
|
103.80
|
103.15
|
-0.36%
|
Oct 18, 2012
|
103.66
|
103.67
|
104.14
|
103.30
|
-0.01%
|
Oct 17, 2012
|
103.67
|
103.35
|
103.75
|
102.92
|
0.30%
|
Oct 16, 2012
|
103.35
|
102.18
|
103.51
|
102.06
|
1.15%
|
Oct 15, 2012
|
102.18
|
101.51
|
102.29
|
101.04
|
0.65%
|
The euro fell on Friday on disappointment but was still able to pick up steam against the JPY. This week we will see retail sales and consumer confidence in Japan, which might dictate the actions of the BoJ.
Mr. Draghi will make an address, which might be harsh over the outcome of the EU Summit.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 15
|
AUD
|
Home Loans (MoM)
|
1.8%
|
1.4%
|
-0.7%
|
CNY
|
Chinese CPI (YoY)
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
|
2.0%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese PPI (YoY)
|
-3.6%
|
-3.6%
|
-3.5%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese CPI (MoM)
|
0.3%
|
0.4%
|
0.6%
| |
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
-1.6%
|
-1.3%
|
-1.3%
| |
USD
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.6%
|
1.0%
| |
USD
|
Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
| |
USD
|
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
|
-6.2
|
-4.5
|
-10.4
| |
NZD
|
CPI (QoQ)
|
0.3%
|
0.6%
|
0.3%
| |
Oct. 16
|
USD
|
Core CPI (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
USD
|
CPI (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
| |
USD
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
|
90.0B
|
45.3B
|
67.2B
| |
USD
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
|
-1.4%
| |
Oct. 17
|
USD
|
Building Permits
|
0.894M
|
0.810M
|
0.801M
|
USD
|
Housing Starts
|
0.872M
|
0.770M
|
0.758M
| |
Oct. 18
|
AUD
|
NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
|
-2.00
|
-2.00
| |
CNY
|
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)
|
20.5%
|
20.2%
|
20.2%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese GDP (YoY)
|
7.4%
|
7.4%
|
7.6%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)
|
9.2%
|
9.0%
|
8.9%
| |
CNY
|
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)
|
14.2%
|
13.2%
|
13.2%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
388K
|
365K
|
342K
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3252K
|
3275K
|
3281K
| |
USD
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
|
5.7
|
1.0
|
-1.9
| |
Oct. 19
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales
|
4.75M
|
4.75M
|
4.82M
|
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest:134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010
Average:111.13 JPY over this period.
Lowest:94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 24
|
01:30
|
AUD
|
1.1%
|
0.5%
| |
01:30
|
AUD
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| ||
02:45
|
CNY
|
47.90
| |||
15:00
|
USD
|
385K
|
373K
| ||
21:00
|
NZD
|
2.50%
|
2.50%
| ||
Oct. 25
|
22:45
|
NZD
|
-825M
|
-789M
| |
Oct. 26
|
00:30
|
JPY
|
-0.5%
|
-0.4%
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 22 09:10 Norway
Oct 23 08:30 Spain
Oct 23 14:30 UK
Oct 23 17:00 US
Oct 24 09:10 Sweden
Oct 24 09:30 Germany
Oct 24 14:30 Sweden
Oct 24 15:30 Italy
Oct 24 16:30 US
Oct 25 00:30 Japan
Oct 25 09:10 Sweden
Oct 25 15:30 Italy
Oct 25 17:00 US
Oct 26 09:10 Italy
Click here a current EUR/JPY Chart.
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