Sunday, October 21, 2012

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 22-26, 2012 Forecast



Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity ofsilver(eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.
Some Facts about Silver:
Silveris a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.
Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.
Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ ashort hedgeto lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize along hedgeto secure a purchase price for thecommoditythey need.
Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculatorsbuy silver futureswhen they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they willsell silver futureswhen they think that silver prices will fall.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Silver climbed on the back of gold earlier in the week and then tumbled as traders moved from precious metals. Industrial metals were stronger after China’s data dump showed that production and retail sales were much improved and GDP reported down but at expectations. Traders are hoping that China is about to turn around. Silver opened the week at 33.14 and closed on Friday at 32.088
Date
Last
Open
High
Low
Change %
Oct 19, 2012
32.088
32.847
32.918
31.945
-2.33%
Oct 18, 2012
32.853
33.153
33.320
32.707
-0.90%
Oct 17, 2012
33.150
33.133
33.295
32.885
0.04%
Oct 16, 2012
33.138
32.728
33.158
32.707
1.24%
Oct 15, 2012
32.733
33.140
33.383
32.575
-1.26%
The week’s outlook for silver remains bearish, as traders seem to be moving to commodity currencies and away from metals. With improvement in the US the likelihood of additional stimulus from the Feds continues to decline. Market sentiment is a bit mixed as traders are disappointed at the outcome of the EU Summit, even though there was not much in the way of expectations there were hopes.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date
Currency
Event
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Oct. 15
GBP
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)
3.5%
-0.6%
CHF
PPI (MoM)
0.3%
0.2%
0.5%
USD
Core Retail Sales (MoM)
1.1%
0.6%
1.0%
USD
Retail Sales (MoM)
1.1%
0.8%
1.2%
USD
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
-6.2
-4.5
-10.4
Oct. 16
GBP
Core CPI (YoY)
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
GBP
CPI (YoY)
2.2%
2.2%
2.5%
GBP
PPI Input (MoM)
-0.2%
-0.1%
1.9%
GBP
CPI (MoM)
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
GBP
PPI Input (YoY)
-1.2%
-0.8%
1.1%
EUR
CPI (YoY)
2.6%
2.7%
2.7%
EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
-11.5
-15.0
-18.2
EUR
ZEW Economic Sentiment
-1.4
-1.1
-3.8
EUR
Core CPI (YoY)
1.5%
1.6%
1.5%
USD
Core CPI (MoM)
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
USD
CPI (MoM)
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
USD
CPI (YoY)
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
USD
Core CPI (YoY)
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
USD
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
90.0B
45.3B
67.2B
USD
Industrial Production (MoM)
0.4%
0.2%
-1.4%
Oct. 17
GBP
Average Earnings Index +Bonus
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
GBP
Claimant Count Change
-4.0K
-1.0K
-14.2K
USD
Building Permits
0.894M
0.810M
0.801M
USD
Housing Starts
0.872M
0.770M
0.758M
Oct. 18
GBP
Retail Sales (MoM)
0.6%
0.4%
-0.1%
GBP
Retail Sales (YoY)
2.5%
2.1%
2.5%
EUR
Spanish 10-Year Obligation Auction
5.458%
5.666%
USD
Initial Jobless Claims
388K
365K
342K
USD
Continuing Jobless Claims
3252K
3275K
3281K
USD
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
5.7
1.0
-1.9
Oct. 19
USD
Existing Home Sales
4.75M
4.75M
4.83M
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest:49.813 on Apr 25, 2011
Average:28.468 over this period.
Lowest:14.655 on Feb 05, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date
Time
Currency
Event
Forecast
Previous
Oct. 24
07:58
EUR
44.0
42.7
08:28
EUR
48.0
47.4
09:00
EUR
101.6
101.4
09:00
EUR
109.7
110.3
09:00
EUR
94.3
93.2
11:00
GBP
-8
15:00
USD
385K
373K
Oct.26
07:00
EUR
5.9
5.9
08:00
CHF
1.67
1.67
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 22 09:10 Norway
Oct 23 08:30 Spain
Oct 23 14:30 UK
Oct 23 17:00 US
Oct 24 09:10 Sweden
Oct 24 09:30 Germany
Oct 24 14:30 Sweden
Oct 24 15:30 Italy
Oct 24 16:30 US
Oct 25 00:30 Japan
Oct 25 09:10 Sweden
Oct 25 15:30 Italy
Oct 25 17:00 US
Oct 26 09:10 Italy
Click here to read Silver Technical Analysis.

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