Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity ofsilver(eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.
Some Facts about Silver:
Silveris a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.
Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.
Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ ashort hedgeto lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize along hedgeto secure a purchase price for thecommoditythey need.
Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculatorsbuy silver futureswhen they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they willsell silver futureswhen they think that silver prices will fall.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Silver climbed on the back of gold earlier in the week and then tumbled as traders moved from precious metals. Industrial metals were stronger after China’s data dump showed that production and retail sales were much improved and GDP reported down but at expectations. Traders are hoping that China is about to turn around. Silver opened the week at 33.14 and closed on Friday at 32.088
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Oct 19, 2012
|
32.088
|
32.847
|
32.918
|
31.945
|
-2.33%
|
Oct 18, 2012
|
32.853
|
33.153
|
33.320
|
32.707
|
-0.90%
|
Oct 17, 2012
|
33.150
|
33.133
|
33.295
|
32.885
|
0.04%
|
Oct 16, 2012
|
33.138
|
32.728
|
33.158
|
32.707
|
1.24%
|
Oct 15, 2012
|
32.733
|
33.140
|
33.383
|
32.575
|
-1.26%
|
The week’s outlook for silver remains bearish, as traders seem to be moving to commodity currencies and away from metals. With improvement in the US the likelihood of additional stimulus from the Feds continues to decline. Market sentiment is a bit mixed as traders are disappointed at the outcome of the EU Summit, even though there was not much in the way of expectations there were hopes.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 15
|
GBP
|
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)
|
3.5%
|
-0.6%
| |
CHF
|
PPI (MoM)
|
0.3%
|
0.2%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.6%
|
1.0%
| |
USD
|
Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
| |
USD
|
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
|
-6.2
|
-4.5
|
-10.4
| |
Oct. 16
|
GBP
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
2.1%
|
2.1%
|
2.1%
|
GBP
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.2%
|
2.2%
|
2.5%
| |
GBP
|
PPI Input (MoM)
|
-0.2%
|
-0.1%
|
1.9%
| |
GBP
|
CPI (MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
| |
GBP
|
PPI Input (YoY)
|
-1.2%
|
-0.8%
|
1.1%
| |
EUR
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.6%
|
2.7%
|
2.7%
| |
EUR
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
|
-11.5
|
-15.0
|
-18.2
| |
EUR
|
ZEW Economic Sentiment
|
-1.4
|
-1.1
|
-3.8
| |
EUR
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
1.5%
|
1.6%
|
1.5%
| |
USD
|
Core CPI (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
| |
USD
|
CPI (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
| |
USD
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
|
90.0B
|
45.3B
|
67.2B
| |
USD
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
|
-1.4%
| |
Oct. 17
|
GBP
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus
|
1.7%
|
1.6%
|
1.6%
|
GBP
|
Claimant Count Change
|
-4.0K
|
-1.0K
|
-14.2K
| |
USD
|
Building Permits
|
0.894M
|
0.810M
|
0.801M
| |
USD
|
Housing Starts
|
0.872M
|
0.770M
|
0.758M
| |
Oct. 18
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.4%
|
-0.1%
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales (YoY)
|
2.5%
|
2.1%
|
2.5%
| |
EUR
|
Spanish 10-Year Obligation Auction
|
5.458%
|
5.666%
| ||
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
388K
|
365K
|
342K
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3252K
|
3275K
|
3281K
| |
USD
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
|
5.7
|
1.0
|
-1.9
| |
Oct. 19
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales
|
4.75M
|
4.75M
|
4.83M
|
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest:49.813 on Apr 25, 2011
Average:28.468 over this period.
Lowest:14.655 on Feb 05, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 24
|
07:58
|
EUR
|
44.0
|
42.7
| |
08:28
|
EUR
|
48.0
|
47.4
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
101.6
|
101.4
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
109.7
|
110.3
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
94.3
|
93.2
| ||
11:00
|
GBP
|
-8
| |||
15:00
|
USD
|
385K
|
373K
| ||
Oct.26
|
07:00
|
EUR
|
5.9
|
5.9
| |
08:00
|
CHF
|
1.67
|
1.67
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 22 09:10 Norway
Oct 23 08:30 Spain
Oct 23 14:30 UK
Oct 23 17:00 US
Oct 24 09:10 Sweden
Oct 24 09:30 Germany
Oct 24 14:30 Sweden
Oct 24 15:30 Italy
Oct 24 16:30 US
Oct 25 00:30 Japan
Oct 25 09:10 Sweden
Oct 25 15:30 Italy
Oct 25 17:00 US
Oct 26 09:10 Italy
Click here to read Silver Technical Analysis.
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