Introduction: Out of the major currency pairs the most popular and easy to trade currency pair is the EUR/USD. It has become so popular with traders these days that even when there is no visible trade to be had it is yet traded as a matter of habit. This is of course something that should be avoided and any investor who trades this currency pair wisely can do so successfully with sizable profits at the end of the day.
The first thing with trading currencies is to realize that the EUR/USD is made up of two separate currencies although considered to be one unit when taken as a pair. The weaknesses and strengths of each currency have to be taken into consideration when trading the unit as it influences the final outcome. Another factor that is often overlooked by traders or investors is that the weakening of one currency along with the strengthening of the other currency in the pair results in the generation of pips. It is according to this that entry and exit from the Forex market has to be done in order to maintain profitability.
- The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Federal Reserve(FED)
- Dollar strength drives EUR/USD lower
- FED intervention to weaken the dollar the sends EUR/USD higher
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The EUR/USD fell from its weekly high of 1.3139 to end the week at 1.3023 and is drifting lower as sentiment towards the euro has turned negative. Although traders did not expect any results from the EU Summit they did hope. Spain dodged the bullet again, and did not request a bailout, which markets were anticipating. And Greece was not resolved. So after much anticipation markets deflated after the final announcements on Friday. The only positive note from last week was the Chinese data dump which met or exceeded expectations, relieving worries of investors.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Oct 19, 2012
|
1.3023
|
1.3069
|
1.3077
|
1.3014
|
-0.35%
|
Oct 18, 2012
|
1.3069
|
1.3112
|
1.3129
|
1.3056
|
-0.34%
|
Oct 17, 2012
|
1.3113
|
1.3106
|
1.3139
|
1.3086
|
0.06%
|
Oct 16, 2012
|
1.3105
|
1.2966
|
1.3123
|
1.2952
|
1.07%
|
Oct 15, 2012
|
1.2966
|
1.2933
|
1.2978
|
1.2890
|
0.26%
|
This week the Chinese data will give a better understanding of the current Chinese economy as the PMI number will have to be above 49 to generate risk-on trading activity. The bigger risk is if it comes in lower as it will (call) into question the veracity of the data previously released.
Draghis speech will review the ECBs recent outright monetary transaction plan and what it means for European sovereigns. Given his audience, the risk is that he will sound more hawkish to assuage the German politicians. Tough talk from Draghi coupled with weaker than expected PMI data will hurt the euro.
Across the pond, the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which concludes Wednesday. Analysts said considering that QE3 was announced in the September meeting, they now expect the FOMC to enter a holding pattern while watching for signs of a substantial improvement in the labor market. With the FOMC in wait-and-see mode, the ongoing discussion among participants around crafting a consensus forecast is likely to intensify, while other discussion may focus on what to do when Operation Twist ends in December.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 15
|
GBP
|
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)
|
3.5%
|
-0.6%
| |
CHF
|
PPI (MoM)
|
0.3%
|
0.2%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.6%
|
1.0%
| |
USD
|
Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
| |
USD
|
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
|
-6.2
|
-4.5
|
-10.4
| |
Oct. 16
|
GBP
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
2.1%
|
2.1%
|
2.1%
|
GBP
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.2%
|
2.2%
|
2.5%
| |
GBP
|
PPI Input (MoM)
|
-0.2%
|
-0.1%
|
1.9%
| |
GBP
|
CPI (MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
| |
GBP
|
PPI Input (YoY)
|
-1.2%
|
-0.8%
|
1.1%
| |
EUR
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.6%
|
2.7%
|
2.7%
| |
EUR
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
|
-11.5
|
-15.0
|
-18.2
| |
EUR
|
ZEW Economic Sentiment
|
-1.4
|
-1.1
|
-3.8
| |
EUR
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
1.5%
|
1.6%
|
1.5%
| |
USD
|
Core CPI (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
| |
USD
|
CPI (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
| |
USD
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
|
90.0B
|
45.3B
|
67.2B
| |
USD
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
|
-1.4%
| |
Oct. 17
|
GBP
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus
|
1.7%
|
1.6%
|
1.6%
|
GBP
|
Claimant Count Change
|
-4.0K
|
-1.0K
|
-14.2K
| |
USD
|
Building Permits
|
0.894M
|
0.810M
|
0.801M
| |
USD
|
Housing Starts
|
0.872M
|
0.770M
|
0.758M
| |
Oct. 18
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.4%
|
-0.1%
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales (YoY)
|
2.5%
|
2.1%
|
2.5%
| |
EUR
|
Spanish 10-Year Obligation Auction
|
5.458%
|
5.666%
| ||
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
388K
|
365K
|
342K
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3252K
|
3275K
|
3281K
| |
USD
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
|
5.7
|
1.0
|
-1.9
| |
Oct. 19
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales
|
4.75M
|
4.75M
|
4.83M
|
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest:1.4940 USD on May 04, 2011.
Average:1.3434 USD over this period.
Lowest:1.1877 USD on Jun 07, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 24
|
07:58
|
EUR
|
44.0
|
42.7
| |
08:28
|
EUR
|
48.0
|
47.4
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
101.6
|
101.4
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
109.7
|
110.3
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
94.3
|
93.2
| ||
11:00
|
GBP
|
-8
| |||
15:00
|
USD
|
385K
|
373K
| ||
Oct.26
|
07:00
|
EUR
|
5.9
|
5.9
| |
08:00
|
CHF
|
1.67
|
1.67
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 22 09:10 Norway
Oct 23 08:30 Spain
Oct 23 14:30 UK
Oct 23 17:00 US
Oct 24 09:10 Sweden
Oct 24 09:30 Germany
Oct 24 14:30 Sweden
Oct 24 15:30 Italy
Oct 24 16:30 US
Oct 25 00:30 Japan
Oct 25 09:10 Sweden
Oct 25 15:30 Italy
Oct 25 17:00 US
Oct 26 09:10 Italy
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