The GBP/USD closed the week at 1.6006 having hit a high for the week at 1.6116 after a few positive eco reports lifted the currency. Unemployment dropped from 8.1% to 7.9% unexpectedly while jobs climbed, also retail sales reported well above forecast. This week its it 3rd quarter GDP numbers, which traders are hoping will report much better for the UK. The UK economic recovery is still suspicious and traders are not sure if some random reports are all that is needed. The BoE is expected to increase its stimlus package either through existing programs or new.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Oct 19, 2012
|
1.6006
|
1.6054
|
1.6067
|
1.5998
|
-0.31%
|
Oct 18, 2012
|
1.6056
|
1.6135
|
1.6171
|
1.6042
|
-0.49%
|
Oct 17, 2012
|
1.6135
|
1.6126
|
1.6178
|
1.6116
|
0.06%
|
Oct 16, 2012
|
1.6126
|
1.6080
|
1.6135
|
1.6062
|
0.29%
|
Oct 15, 2012
|
1.6080
|
1.6057
|
1.6081
|
1.6022
|
0.14%
|
Markets expect that UK GDP (to be reported on October 25th) rebounded strongly during the third quarter, advancing 0.7% q/q. There are likely to be two key areas of support. Firstly, the bounce back from the lost output during the second quarter that resulted from the extra bank holiday. The monthly output data for July have already confirmed this occurrence, and the boost should be worth around half a percentage point. Secondly, there is likely to be a lift from the London Summer Olympics. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has already highlighted that the ticket sales will raise quarterly household consumption growth by 0.1 percentage point. We also suspect that the wider boost of the games (i.e. tourism spending, transport, etc.) should add at least the same amount again. Stripping away the noise around the headline print, we believe that the pace of underlying GDP growth is around 0.3% q/q. This isnt particularly good, but nor is it that bad. We believe that trend GDP growth in the UK is around 1.5%, so a 1.2% annualized growth rate is rather close to trend, albeit somewhat lackluster. Monetary policy is accommodative, fiscal policy is restrictive and external demand is fragile amidst the euro zone debt crisis
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of October 15-19, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 15
|
GBP
|
Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)
|
3.5%
|
-0.6%
| |
CHF
|
PPI (MoM)
|
0.3%
|
0.2%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.6%
|
1.0%
| |
USD
|
Retail Sales (MoM)
|
1.1%
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
| |
USD
|
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
|
-6.2
|
-4.5
|
-10.4
| |
Oct. 16
|
GBP
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
2.1%
|
2.1%
|
2.1%
|
GBP
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.2%
|
2.2%
|
2.5%
| |
GBP
|
PPI Input (MoM)
|
-0.2%
|
-0.1%
|
1.9%
| |
GBP
|
CPI (MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
| |
GBP
|
PPI Input (YoY)
|
-1.2%
|
-0.8%
|
1.1%
| |
EUR
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.6%
|
2.7%
|
2.7%
| |
EUR
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
|
-11.5
|
-15.0
|
-18.2
| |
EUR
|
ZEW Economic Sentiment
|
-1.4
|
-1.1
|
-3.8
| |
EUR
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
1.5%
|
1.6%
|
1.5%
| |
USD
|
Core CPI (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
| |
USD
|
CPI (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
| |
USD
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Core CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
|
90.0B
|
45.3B
|
67.2B
| |
USD
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
|
-1.4%
| |
Oct. 17
|
GBP
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus
|
1.7%
|
1.6%
|
1.6%
|
GBP
|
Claimant Count Change
|
-4.0K
|
-1.0K
|
-14.2K
| |
USD
|
Building Permits
|
0.894M
|
0.810M
|
0.801M
| |
USD
|
Housing Starts
|
0.872M
|
0.770M
|
0.758M
| |
Oct. 18
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.4%
|
-0.1%
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales (YoY)
|
2.5%
|
2.1%
|
2.5%
| |
EUR
|
Spanish 10-Year Obligation Auction
|
5.458%
|
5.666%
| ||
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
388K
|
365K
|
342K
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3252K
|
3275K
|
3281K
| |
USD
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
|
5.7
|
1.0
|
-1.9
| |
Oct. 19
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales
|
4.75M
|
4.75M
|
4.83M
|
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest:1.6747 USD on April 28, 2011.
Average:1.5751 USD over this period
Lowest:1.4229 USD on May 20, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 24
|
07:58
|
EUR
|
44.0
|
42.7
| |
08:28
|
EUR
|
48.0
|
47.4
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
101.6
|
101.4
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
109.7
|
110.3
| ||
09:00
|
EUR
|
94.3
|
93.2
| ||
11:00
|
GBP
|
-8
| |||
15:00
|
USD
|
385K
|
373K
| ||
Oct.26
|
07:00
|
EUR
|
5.9
|
5.9
| |
08:00
|
CHF
|
1.67
|
1.67
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 22 09:10 Norway
Oct 23 08:30 Spain
Oct 23 14:30 UK
Oct 23 17:00 US
Oct 24 09:10 Sweden
Oct 24 09:30 Germany
Oct 24 14:30 Sweden
Oct 24 15:30 Italy
Oct 24 16:30 US
Oct 25 00:30 Japan
Oct 25 09:10 Sweden
Oct 25 15:30 Italy
Oct 25 17:00 US
Oct 26 09:10 Italy
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