Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The EUR/USD weakened all week, to close at 1.2940 after opening at 1.3021. The pair saw a high of 1.303 but continued to weaken as Spain and Greece pulled the euro down. Lack of any accomplishment at the EU Summit also disappointed traders. This week saw poor eco data in the form of PMI’s and German Ifo numbers. While the US showed continued recovery.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Oct 26, 2012
|
1.2940
|
1.2939
|
1.2956
|
1.2884
|
0.01%
|
Oct 25, 2012
|
1.2939
|
1.2965
|
1.3023
|
1.2927
|
-0.20%
|
Oct 24, 2012
|
1.2965
|
1.2974
|
1.2997
|
1.2921
|
-0.07%
|
Oct 23, 2012
|
1.2974
|
1.3070
|
1.3071
|
1.2952
|
-0.74%
|
Oct 22, 2012
|
1.3071
|
1.3021
|
1.3083
|
1.3020
|
0.38%
|
European markets face elevated risks surrounding developments in Spain next week. Q3 Spanish GDP is expected to post the fifth consecutive quarterly contraction amid no signs that the pace of contraction is ebbing. Indeed, more intensified fiscal drag could operate more significantly against economic growth in coming quarters. Spain releases its latest monthly year-to-date progress report on its deficit on Tuesday. Figures up to August showed a cumulative deficit that was tracking 24% higher than the deficit over the same period in the prior year. At 4.8% of GDP on a non-annualized year-to-date basis, Spain looks set to blow its fiscal target as growth and deficits deteriorate going forward. This is intensifying speculation that a Spanish aid package may be drawing nearer. A militant labor union is attempting to organize a general strike for Wednesday, but November 14th is likely to be the bigger and more paralyzing day as mainstream labor unions have joined in calling for a national strike at that time. Greece will also vault back into the headlines as Euro-area finance ministers hold a conference call on Wednesday to discuss Greek aid. It was recently revealed that Greece is estimated to need US$39 billion in additional aid through to 2016 on account of the fact that its recession has been deeper than expected and it will miss its budget targets that will be delayed by about two years
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of October 2226, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 23
|
GBP
|
BBA Mortgage Approvals
|
31.2K
|
30.9K
|
30.7K
|
Oct. 24
|
CNY
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
|
49.10
|
47.90
| |
EUR
|
French Manufacturing PMI
|
43.5
|
44.0
|
42.7
| |
EUR
|
German Manufacturing PMI
|
45.7
|
48.0
|
47.4
| |
EUR
|
German Ifo Business Climate Index
|
100.0
|
101.5
|
101.4
| |
EUR
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
45.3
|
46.6
|
46.1
| |
EUR
|
German Current Assessment
|
107.3
|
109.8
|
110.3
| |
EUR
|
German Business Expectations
|
93.2
|
93.7
|
93.2
| |
EUR
|
German 10-Year Bund Auction
|
1.560%
|
1.520%
| ||
GBP
|
CBI Industrial Trends Orders
|
-23
|
-6
|
-8
| |
USD
|
New Home Sales
|
389K
|
385K
|
368K
| |
USD
|
Interest Rate Decision
|
0.25%
|
0.25%
|
0.25%
| |
Oct. 25
|
GBP
|
GDP (QoQ)
|
1.0%
|
0.6%
|
-0.4%
|
GBP
|
GDP (YoY)
|
0.0%
|
-0.5%
|
-0.5%
| |
USD
|
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
|
2.0%
|
0.8%
|
-2.1%
| |
USD
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM)
|
9.9%
|
7.1%
|
-13.1%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
369K
|
370K
|
392K
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3254K
|
3255K
|
3256K
| |
USD
|
Pending Home Sales (MoM)
|
0.3%
|
2.1%
|
-2.6%
| |
Oct. 26
|
EUR
|
GfK German Consumer Climate
|
6.3
|
5.9
|
6.1
|
CHF
|
KOF Leading Indicators
|
1.67
|
1.63
|
1.68
| |
USD
|
GDP (QoQ)
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
1.3%
| |
USD
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
|
82.6
|
83.0
|
83.1
|
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest:1.4940 USD on May 04, 2011.
Average:1.3434 USD over this period.
Lowest:1.1877 USD on Jun 07, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 29
|
01:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
13:30
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
| |
13:30
|
USD
|
Personal Spending (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| |
Oct. 30
|
09:55
|
EUR
|
German Unemployment Change
|
10K
|
9K
|
12:00
|
GBP
|
CBI Distributive Trades Survey
|
7
|
6
| |
15:00
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.5
|
70.3
| |
Oct. 31
|
08:45
|
EUR
|
French Consumer Spending (MoM)
|
0.2%
|
0.4%
|
13:15
|
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
|
135K
|
162K
| |
13:30
|
USD
|
Employment Cost Index (QoQ)
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| |
14:45
|
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
51.1
|
49.7
| |
Nov. 01
|
02:00
|
CNY
|
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
|
49.80
| |
08:00
|
GBP
|
Nationwide HPI (MoM)
|
0.2%
|
-0.4%
| |
09:15
|
CHF
|
Retail Sales (YoY)
|
4.2%
|
5.9%
| |
09:30
|
CHF
|
SVME PMI
|
44.5
|
43.6
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Oct 29 10:10 Italy
Oct 29 10:30 Germany
Oct 29 11:00 Belgium
Oct 30 10:10 Italy
Oct 30 15:30 UK
Oct 31 09:50 France
Oct 31 10:10 Sweden
Oct 31 10:30 Germany
Oct 31 14:00 US
Nov 01 10:10 Sweden
Nov 01 10:30 UK
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