Weekly Analysis and Recommendations
The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.8013. Early in the week there was some supportive data for the sterling but not enough to push it up against the euro which was strong in the early part of the week. By midweek the euro was forced to deal with problems growing in Greece and Spain, lack of results, poor eco data and a strengthening US dollar.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Nov 02, 2012
|
0.8013
|
0.8025
|
0.8029
|
0.7996
|
-0.15%
|
Nov 01, 2012
|
0.8025
|
0.8036
|
0.8042
|
0.8004
|
-0.14%
|
Oct 31, 2012
|
0.8036
|
0.8064
|
0.8076
|
0.8029
|
-0.35%
|
Oct 30, 2012
|
0.8064
|
0.8052
|
0.8073
|
0.8040
|
0.15%
|
Oct 29, 2012
|
0.8052
|
0.8033
|
0.8056
|
0.8024
|
0.24%
|
The pound retreated against a broadly stronger dollar however, after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data brightened the outlook for the world’s largesteconomy.
UKconstructionPMI data for October rose above expectations to 50.9, which indicated expansion in the sector, although firms said they remained cautious about future growth. The euro fell to 79.96 pence, its weakest since Oct 3, before paring losses to last trade down 0.2 percent on the day at 80.06 pence. Traders citedeuro zoneexporter bids at 79.80/90 pence. In contrast to the upbeat UK report, data showedeuro zonemanufacturing shrank for the 15th month running in October as output and new orders fell.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 29
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
USD
|
Personal Spending (MoM)
|
0.8%
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| |
EUR
|
German CPI (MoM)
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
| |
EUR
|
German CPI (YoY)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
| |
Oct. 30
|
EUR
|
German Unemployment Change
|
20K
|
10K
|
12K
|
EUR
|
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction
|
4.92%
|
5.24%
| ||
GBP
|
CBI Distributive Trades Survey
|
30
|
7
|
6
| |
Oct. 31
|
EUR
|
French Consumer Spending (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
-0.8%
|
EUR
|
CPI (YoY)
|
2.5%
|
2.5%
|
2.6%
| |
USD
|
Employment Cost Index (QoQ)
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
49.9
|
51.0
|
49.7
| |
Nov. 01
|
CNY
|
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
|
50.20
|
50.30
|
49.80
|
CNY
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
|
49.50
|
49.10
|
49.10
| |
GBP
|
Nationwide HPI (MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.2%
|
-0.4%
| |
CHF
|
Retail Sales (YoY)
|
5.4%
|
4.2%
|
6.0%
| |
CHF
|
SVME PMI
|
46.1
|
44.5
|
43.6
| |
GBP
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
47.5
|
48.1
|
48.1
| |
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
|
158K
|
135K
|
114K
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
363K
|
370K
|
372K
| |
USD
|
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)
|
-0.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3263K
|
3250K
|
3259K
| |
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.2
|
72.5
|
68.4
| |
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Index
|
51.7
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
Nov. 02
|
EUR
|
Italian Manufacturing PMI
|
45.50
|
45.90
|
45.70
|
EUR
|
French Manufacturing PMI
|
43.7
|
43.5
|
43.5
| |
EUR
|
German Manufacturing PMI
|
46.0
|
45.7
|
45.7
| |
EUR
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
45.4
|
45.3
|
45.3
| |
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
|
0.0%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls
|
171K
|
125K
|
148K
| |
USD
|
Average Weekly Hours
|
34.4
|
34.5
|
34.4
| |
USD
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls
|
184K
|
125K
|
128K
|
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest:0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.
Average:1.1548 EUR over this period.
Lowest:0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Nov. 05
|
15:00
|
USD
|
54.5
|
55.1
| |
Nov. 06
|
06:45
|
CHF
|
-22
|
-17
| |
09:30
|
GBP
|
-0.6%
|
-0.5%
| ||
09:30
|
GBP
|
0.3%
|
-1.1%
| ||
09:30
|
GBP
|
-1.6%
|
-1.2%
| ||
11:00
|
EUR
|
-0.5%
|
-1.3%
| ||
Nov. 07
|
08:15
|
CHF
|
0.3%
|
0.3%
| |
10:00
|
EUR
|
-0.1%
|
0.1%
| ||
11:00
|
EUR
|
-0.5%
|
-0.5%
| ||
Nov. 08
|
12:00
|
GBP
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
| |
12:00
|
GBP
|
375B
|
375B
| ||
12:45
|
EUR
|
0.75%
|
0.75%
| ||
Nov. 09
|
01:30
|
CNY
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
| |
01:30
|
CNY
|
-2.7%
|
-3.6%
| ||
01:30
|
CNY
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
20.6%
|
20.5%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
9.4%
|
9.2%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
14.1%
|
14.2%
| ||
07:00
|
EUR
| ||||
07:00
|
EUR
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
| ||
09:30
|
GBP
|
-8.9B
|
-9.8B
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Nov 05 10:10 Norway
Nov 06 10:10 Greece
Nov 06 10:15 Austria
Nov 06 10:30 Belgium
Nov 06 10:30 UK
Nov 06 15:30 UK
Nov 06 18:00 US
Nov 07 10:30 Germany
Nov 07 15:30 Sweden
Nov 07 18:00 US
Nov 08 9:30 Spain
Nov 08 10:10 Sweden
Nov 08 16:30 Italy
Nov 08 18:00 US
Nov 09 11:00 Belgium
Nov 09 16:30 Italy
Click here for updated EUR/GBP News.
Originally posted here
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