Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/JPY closed at 103.21 a few pips from higher then the open on Monday at 102.92. The EUR/JPY was trading near a recent range support heading into todays (11/2) Non-Farm Payroll release. It came out 171K, beating forecast of 123K. The initial reaction reflected conventional risk-on dynamic, pushing the EUR/JPY near 103.80. However this rally proved unsustainable as the market faded the pair in the hour following the NFP release.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Nov 02, 2012
|
103.21
|
103.86
|
103.86
|
103.06
|
-0.62%
|
Nov 01, 2012
|
103.86
|
103.54
|
103.99
|
103.34
|
0.31%
|
Oct 31, 2012
|
103.54
|
103.27
|
103.94
|
103.08
|
0.25%
|
Oct 30, 2012
|
103.28
|
102.97
|
103.36
|
102.18
|
0.30%
|
Oct 29, 2012
|
102.97
|
102.92
|
103.16
|
102.53
|
0.04%
|
Eventually as we wind down the week, EUR/JPY has broken this weeks range. Maybe the 103.00 psychological level can provide support, but if a pullback is prevented from pushing back above 103.50, the focus remains to the downside in the short-term
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Major Economic Events for last week actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 29
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
USD
|
Personal Spending (MoM)
|
0.8%
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| |
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
-4.1%
|
-3.3%
|
-1.6%
| |
Oct. 30
|
AUD
|
HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
|
-3.7%
|
-5.3%
| |
JPY
|
Interest Rate Decision
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
| |
NZD
|
Building Consents (MoM)
|
7.8%
|
3.0%
|
1.9%
| |
Oct. 31
|
AUD
|
Building Approvals (MoM)
|
7.8%
|
1.0%
|
8.8%
|
USD
|
Employment Cost Index (QoQ)
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
49.9
|
51.0
|
49.7
| |
Nov. 01
|
CNY
|
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
|
50.20
|
50.30
|
49.80
|
CNY
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
|
49.50
|
49.10
|
49.10
| |
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
|
158K
|
135K
|
114K
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
363K
|
370K
|
372K
| |
USD
|
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)
|
-0.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3263K
|
3250K
|
3259K
| |
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.2
|
72.5
|
68.4
| |
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Index
|
51.7
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
Nov. 02
|
AUD
|
PPI (QoQ)
|
0.6%
|
1.2%
|
0.5%
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
|
0.0%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls
|
171K
|
125K
|
148K
| |
USD
|
Average Weekly Hours
|
34.4
|
34.5
|
34.4
| |
USD
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls
|
184K
|
125K
|
128K
|
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest:134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010
Average:111.13 JPY over this period.
Lowest:94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Nov. 05
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
| |
00:30
|
AUD
|
-1.65B
|
-2.03B
| ||
15:00
|
USD
|
54.5
|
55.1
| ||
21:45
|
NZD
|
-0.1%
| |||
21:45
|
NZD
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| ||
Nov. 06
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
1.00%
|
0.50%
| |
03:30
|
AUD
|
3.00%
|
3.25%
| ||
Nov. 07
|
21:45
|
NZD
|
0.3%
|
-0.1%
| |
Nov. 08
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
14.5K
| ||
Nov. 09
|
01:30
|
CNY
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
| |
01:30
|
CNY
|
-2.7%
|
-3.6%
| ||
01:30
|
CNY
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
20.6%
|
20.5%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
9.4%
|
9.2%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
14.1%
|
14.2%
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Nov 05 10:10 Norway
Nov 06 10:10 Greece
Nov 06 10:15 Austria
Nov 06 10:30 Belgium
Nov 06 10:30 UK
Nov 06 15:30 UK
Nov 06 18:00 US
Nov 07 10:30 Germany
Nov 07 15:30 Sweden
Nov 07 18:00 US
Nov 08 9:30 Spain
Nov 08 10:10 Sweden
Nov 08 16:30 Italy
Nov 08 18:00 US
Nov 09 11:00 Belgium
Nov 09 16:30 Italy
Click here for further EUR/JPY Forecast.
Originally posted here
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