Introduction: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictability.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:The NZD/USD lost some momentum as the US gained strength after positive eco data all week in the US. The kiwi stalled its rally as investors prepare for US jobs figures in US trading after upbeat data yesterday, and as the world’s biggest economy prepares to elect its administration next week.
The kiwi traded at 82.64 US cents at 5pm in Wellington from 82.70 cents at 8am and holding most of its gain from 82.17 cents yesterday. The trade-weighted index advanced to 73.78 from 73.34 yesterday. The currency is poised for a 0.5 percent weekly gain against the greenback, and 0.9 percent on a trade-weighted basis.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Nov 02, 2012
|
0.8246
|
0.8278
|
0.8288
|
0.8239
|
-0.39%
|
Nov 01, 2012
|
0.8278
|
0.8220
|
0.8280
|
0.8212
|
0.71%
|
Oct 31, 2012
|
0.8220
|
0.8218
|
0.8228
|
0.8200
|
0.02%
|
Oct 30, 2012
|
0.8218
|
0.8198
|
0.8234
|
0.8195
|
0.26%
|
Oct 29, 2012
|
0.8197
|
0.8208
|
0.8224
|
0.8183
|
-0.13%
|
The US probably added 125,000 jobs last month and had an unemployment rate of 7.9 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That comes after upbeat private survey of US jobs figures stoked optimism the labor market in the world’s biggest economy may be showing signs of life after several years of stagnation. Risk-sensitive assets rallied around the world, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index up 1.3 percent in afternoon trading and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index up 1.1 percent.
Investor optimism was bolstered by upbeat Chinese manufacturing figures yesterday, which showed industrial production expanded for the first time in three months in October.
Next week’s US Presidential election will continue to take centre stage for investors, with polling showing challenger Mitt Romney is neck-and-neck with incumbent Barrack Obama. Obama received an endorsement from the Economist magazine this week.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for last week actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 29
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
USD
|
Personal Spending (MoM)
|
0.8%
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| |
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
-4.1%
|
-3.3%
|
-1.6%
| |
Oct. 30
|
AUD
|
HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
|
-3.7%
|
-5.3%
| |
JPY
|
Interest Rate Decision
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
| |
NZD
|
Building Consents (MoM)
|
7.8%
|
3.0%
|
1.9%
| |
Oct. 31
|
AUD
|
Building Approvals (MoM)
|
7.8%
|
1.0%
|
8.8%
|
USD
|
Employment Cost Index (QoQ)
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
49.9
|
51.0
|
49.7
| |
Nov. 01
|
CNY
|
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
|
50.20
|
50.30
|
49.80
|
CNY
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
|
49.50
|
49.10
|
49.10
| |
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
|
158K
|
135K
|
114K
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
363K
|
370K
|
372K
| |
USD
|
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)
|
-0.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3263K
|
3250K
|
3259K
| |
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.2
|
72.5
|
68.4
| |
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Index
|
51.7
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
Nov. 02
|
AUD
|
PPI (QoQ)
|
0.6%
|
1.2%
|
0.5%
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
|
0.0%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls
|
171K
|
125K
|
148K
| |
USD
|
Average Weekly Hours
|
34.4
|
34.5
|
34.4
| |
USD
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls
|
184K
|
125K
|
128K
|
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest:0.8842 USD on Aug 01, 2011.
Average:0.7543 USD over this period.
Lowest:0.6562 USD on May 25, 2010.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Nov. 05
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
| |
00:30
|
AUD
|
-1.65B
|
-2.03B
| ||
15:00
|
USD
|
54.5
|
55.1
| ||
21:45
|
NZD
|
-0.1%
| |||
21:45
|
NZD
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| ||
Nov. 06
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
1.00%
|
0.50%
| |
03:30
|
AUD
|
3.00%
|
3.25%
| ||
Nov. 07
|
21:45
|
NZD
|
0.3%
|
-0.1%
| |
Nov. 08
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
14.5K
| ||
Nov. 09
|
01:30
|
CNY
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
| |
01:30
|
CNY
|
-2.7%
|
-3.6%
| ||
01:30
|
CNY
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
20.6%
|
20.5%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
9.4%
|
9.2%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
14.1%
|
14.2%
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Nov 05 10:10 Norway
Nov 06 10:10 Greece
Nov 06 10:15 Austria
Nov 06 10:30 Belgium
Nov 06 10:30 UK
Nov 06 15:30 UK
Nov 06 18:00 US
Nov 07 10:30 Germany
Nov 07 15:30 Sweden
Nov 07 18:00 US
Nov 08 9:30 Spain
Nov 08 10:10 Sweden
Nov 08 16:30 Italy
Nov 08 18:00 US
Nov 09 11:00 Belgium
Nov 09 16:30 Italy
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Originally posted here
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