Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/CAD dipped under parity to trade at 0.9954. On Friday both the US and Canada released labor statics. The Canadian report was lackluster but the CAD is more responsive to positive US data, and the US NFP report was well above forecast, which combined with a week of positive eco data saw the Canadian dollar and the US dollar climb.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Nov 02, 2012
|
0.9954
|
0.9964
|
0.9985
|
0.9922
|
-0.10%
|
Nov 01, 2012
|
0.9964
|
1.0001
|
1.0014
|
0.9961
|
-0.37%
|
Oct 31, 2012
|
1.0001
|
0.9998
|
1.0014
|
0.9961
|
0.03%
|
Oct 30, 2012
|
0.9998
|
1.0009
|
1.0020
|
0.9984
|
-0.11%
|
Oct 29, 2012
|
1.0009
|
0.9994
|
1.0012
|
0.9980
|
0.15%
|
Canadian markets should largely follow the global market tone next week at least in terms of CAD and the Canada curve. How will CAD ultimately react to the US election? An Obama win would be dovish for the Fed but I think it would still motivate a safe-haven flow into Treasuries and the USD on fiscal gridlock concerns until this shakes out, perhaps as soon as early 2013. A Romney win might sustain a bid for the USD as it would be more hawkish for US monetary policy over time. Canadian credit and equities could well be influenced by the tone of the ongoing earnings season. In fact, almost half of the TSX composite reports next week (or 112 companies out of 248). The releases come from a broad cross-section of mining, real estate, retailing, manufacturing, financial and service companies.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the last week actual v. forecast for the Canadian & US Dollar
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 29
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
USD
|
Personal Spending (MoM)
|
0.8%
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| |
Oct. 31
|
CAD
|
GDP (MoM)
|
-0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
USD
|
Employment Cost Index (QoQ)
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
49.9
|
51.0
|
49.7
| |
Nov. 01
|
CNY
|
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
|
50.20
|
50.30
|
49.80
|
CNY
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
|
49.50
|
49.10
|
49.10
| |
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
|
158K
|
135K
|
114K
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
363K
|
370K
|
372K
| |
USD
|
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)
|
-0.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3263K
|
3250K
|
3259K
| |
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.2
|
72.5
|
68.4
| |
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Index
|
51.7
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
Nov. 02
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
|
0.0%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
CAD
|
Employment Change
|
1.8K
|
5.0K
|
52.1K
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls
|
171K
|
125K
|
148K
| |
USD
|
Average Weekly Hours
|
34.4
|
34.5
|
34.4
| |
USD
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls
|
184K
|
125K
|
128K
|
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest:1.0853 CAD on May 25, 2010.
Average:1.0090 CAD over this period.
Lowest:0.9407 CAD on Jan 26, 2011.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the American and Canadian Markets
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Nov. 05
|
13:30
|
CAD
|
7.9%
| ||
15:00
|
USD
|
54.5
|
55.1
| ||
Nov. 06
|
15:00
|
CAD
|
60.4
| ||
Nov. 08
|
13:15
|
CAD
|
220.2K
| ||
13:30
|
CAD
|
-1.3B
| |||
Nov. 09
|
01:30
|
CNY
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
| |
01:30
|
CNY
|
-2.7%
|
-3.6%
| ||
01:30
|
CNY
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
20.6%
|
20.5%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
9.4%
|
9.2%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
14.1%
|
14.2%
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Nov 05 10:10 Norway
Nov 06 10:10 Greece
Nov 06 10:15 Austria
Nov 06 10:30 Belgium
Nov 06 10:30 UK
Nov 06 15:30 UK
Nov 06 18:00 US
Nov 07 10:30 Germany
Nov 07 15:30 Sweden
Nov 07 18:00 US
Nov 08 9:30 Spain
Nov 08 10:10 Sweden
Nov 08 16:30 Italy
Nov 08 18:00 US
Nov 09 11:00 Belgium
Nov 09 16:30 Italy
Click here to read USD/CAD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
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