Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD declined as the US dollar increased. The pair fell from a high of 1.0414 to close the week at 1.0334. AUD has weakened 0.3% from yesterdays close; reversing earlier gains that saw it reach highs not seen since late September, on below expectations PPI. Australias Treasurer Swan has suggested that lower inflation will allow the economy to operate with lower interest rates. Although he is not a policymaker, Swans comments have added to broad-based expectations for a 25bpt rate cut from the RBA on Tuesday, to 3.00% (20 out of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a cut).
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Nov 02, 2012
|
1.0334
|
1.0413
|
1.0414
|
1.0331
|
-0.76%
|
Nov 01, 2012
|
1.0413
|
1.0372
|
1.0419
|
1.0355
|
0.40%
|
Oct 31, 2012
|
1.0372
|
1.0363
|
1.0399
|
1.0353
|
0.08%
|
Oct 30, 2012
|
1.0364
|
1.0339
|
1.0384
|
1.0330
|
0.24%
|
Oct 29, 2012
|
1.0339
|
1.0352
|
1.0368
|
1.0326
|
-0.12%
|
The RBA will also be active, with a rate announcement due on the 6th. Economists and markets are looking for a cut of the benchmark rate to 3% in spite of the fact that CPI picked up to the 2.4-2.6% range using the RBAs favored trimmed mean and weighted median measures during Q3. A bevy of Australian data points will be released over the week as well including trade and quarterly retail sales, the home price index, and jobs numbers.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for last week actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 29
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
USD
|
Personal Spending (MoM)
|
0.8%
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| |
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
-4.1%
|
-3.3%
|
-1.6%
| |
Oct. 30
|
AUD
|
HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
|
-3.7%
|
-5.3%
| |
JPY
|
Interest Rate Decision
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
| |
NZD
|
Building Consents (MoM)
|
7.8%
|
3.0%
|
1.9%
| |
Oct. 31
|
AUD
|
Building Approvals (MoM)
|
7.8%
|
1.0%
|
8.8%
|
USD
|
Employment Cost Index (QoQ)
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
49.9
|
51.0
|
49.7
| |
Nov. 01
|
CNY
|
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
|
50.20
|
50.30
|
49.80
|
CNY
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
|
49.50
|
49.10
|
49.10
| |
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
|
158K
|
135K
|
114K
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
363K
|
370K
|
372K
| |
USD
|
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)
|
-0.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3263K
|
3250K
|
3259K
| |
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.2
|
72.5
|
68.4
| |
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Index
|
51.7
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
Nov. 02
|
AUD
|
PPI (QoQ)
|
0.6%
|
1.2%
|
0.5%
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
|
0.0%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls
|
171K
|
125K
|
148K
| |
USD
|
Average Weekly Hours
|
34.4
|
34.5
|
34.4
| |
USD
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls
|
184K
|
125K
|
128K
|
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest:1.1080 USD on Jul 27, 2011
Average:0.9898 USD over this period
Lowest:0.8067 USD May 25, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Nov. 05
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
| |
00:30
|
AUD
|
-1.65B
|
-2.03B
| ||
15:00
|
USD
|
54.5
|
55.1
| ||
21:45
|
NZD
|
-0.1%
| |||
21:45
|
NZD
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| ||
Nov. 06
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
1.00%
|
0.50%
| |
03:30
|
AUD
|
3.00%
|
3.25%
| ||
Nov. 07
|
21:45
|
NZD
|
0.3%
|
-0.1%
| |
Nov. 08
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
14.5K
| ||
Nov. 09
|
01:30
|
CNY
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
| |
01:30
|
CNY
|
-2.7%
|
-3.6%
| ||
01:30
|
CNY
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
20.6%
|
20.5%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
9.4%
|
9.2%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
14.1%
|
14.2%
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Nov 05 10:10 Norway
Nov 06 10:10 Greece
Nov 06 10:15 Austria
Nov 06 10:30 Belgium
Nov 06 10:30 UK
Nov 06 15:30 UK
Nov 06 18:00 US
Nov 07 10:30 Germany
Nov 07 15:30 Sweden
Nov 07 18:00 US
Nov 08 9:30 Spain
Nov 08 10:10 Sweden
Nov 08 16:30 Italy
Nov 08 18:00 US
Nov 09 11:00 Belgium
Nov 09 16:30 Italy
Click here a current AUD/USD Chart.
Originally posted here
No comments:
Post a Comment