Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/JPY soared to end the week at 80.43. The greenback rose all week on positive eco data which culminated on Friday after the release of a strong NFP report. The Bank of Japan added additional stimulus midweek, which helped reduce the value of the yen. Towards the end of the week, the BoJ assessment of the Japanese economy was very negative weighing on the currency.
Date
|
Last
|
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Change %
|
Nov 02, 2012
|
80.43
|
80.22
|
80.67
|
80.20
|
0.26%
|
Nov 01, 2012
|
80.22
|
79.86
|
80.23
|
79.85
|
0.45%
|
Oct 31, 2012
|
79.86
|
79.68
|
79.96
|
79.52
|
0.23%
|
Oct 30, 2012
|
79.68
|
79.78
|
80.10
|
79.28
|
-0.12%
|
Oct 29, 2012
|
79.78
|
79.65
|
79.84
|
79.53
|
0.16%
|
The key data risk in Asia will come at the end of the week when China releases an update on its economy via CPI, retail sales, and industrial production numbers for October. A popular theme in markets has been to claim that Chinas mid-year growth swoon has troughed, and the September numbers will be watched closely for hard evidence of this sentiment. For its part, Japan is in the midst of a bona fide economic slump, and trade numbers for September due out on Thursday will offer hints as to the extent to which weaker Chinese demand is harming the Japanese economy (and vice versa) in light of the prominent geopolitical spat between the two countries that intensified in September
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for last week actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Oct. 29
|
USD
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
USD
|
Personal Spending (MoM)
|
0.8%
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
| |
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM)
|
-4.1%
|
-3.3%
|
-1.6%
| |
Oct. 30
|
AUD
|
HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
|
-3.7%
|
-5.3%
| |
JPY
|
Interest Rate Decision
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
| |
NZD
|
Building Consents (MoM)
|
7.8%
|
3.0%
|
1.9%
| |
Oct. 31
|
AUD
|
Building Approvals (MoM)
|
7.8%
|
1.0%
|
8.8%
|
USD
|
Employment Cost Index (QoQ)
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| |
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
49.9
|
51.0
|
49.7
| |
Nov. 01
|
CNY
|
Chinese Manufacturing PMI
|
50.20
|
50.30
|
49.80
|
CNY
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
|
49.50
|
49.10
|
49.10
| |
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
|
158K
|
135K
|
114K
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
1.9%
| |
USD
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
363K
|
370K
|
372K
| |
USD
|
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)
|
-0.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.7%
| |
USD
|
Continuing Jobless Claims
|
3263K
|
3250K
|
3259K
| |
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.2
|
72.5
|
68.4
| |
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Index
|
51.7
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
Nov. 02
|
AUD
|
PPI (QoQ)
|
0.6%
|
1.2%
|
0.5%
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
|
0.0%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
| |
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls
|
171K
|
125K
|
148K
| |
USD
|
Average Weekly Hours
|
34.4
|
34.5
|
34.4
| |
USD
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls
|
184K
|
125K
|
128K
|
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest:94.99 on May 05, 2010
Average:82.77 over this period
Lowest:75.58 on Oct 31, 2011
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Nov. 05
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
| |
00:30
|
AUD
|
-1.65B
|
-2.03B
| ||
15:00
|
USD
|
54.5
|
55.1
| ||
21:45
|
NZD
|
-0.1%
| |||
21:45
|
NZD
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
| ||
Nov. 06
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
1.00%
|
0.50%
| |
03:30
|
AUD
|
3.00%
|
3.25%
| ||
Nov. 07
|
21:45
|
NZD
|
0.3%
|
-0.1%
| |
Nov. 08
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
14.5K
| ||
Nov. 09
|
01:30
|
CNY
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
| |
01:30
|
CNY
|
-2.7%
|
-3.6%
| ||
01:30
|
CNY
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
20.6%
|
20.5%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
9.4%
|
9.2%
| ||
05:30
|
CNY
|
14.1%
|
14.2%
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Nov 05 10:10 Norway
Nov 06 10:10 Greece
Nov 06 10:15 Austria
Nov 06 10:30 Belgium
Nov 06 10:30 UK
Nov 06 15:30 UK
Nov 06 18:00 US
Nov 07 10:30 Germany
Nov 07 15:30 Sweden
Nov 07 18:00 US
Nov 08 9:30 Spain
Nov 08 10:10 Sweden
Nov 08 16:30 Italy
Nov 08 18:00 US
Nov 09 11:00 Belgium
Nov 09 16:30 Italy
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