Outlook and Recommendation
The AUD/USD ended the month on a strong up trend, heading towards the all important 1.04 price. At the close of the month, the pair ended at 1.0357. The outlook for the AUD is tied to the prospects for China, relative monetary policy and domestic fundamentals; in the current environment AUD should remain well supported. The Australian dollar is supported by strong economic fundamentals, wide interest rate differentials between Australia and other advanced economies, a AAA credit rating, and portfolio investment inflows. Consumer prices increased by 1.4% q/q in the July-September period, taking annual inflation to 2.0%.
Highest:1.0412
|
Lowest:1.0150
|
Difference:0.0262
|
Average:1.0290
|
Change %:-0.04
|
The AUD drivers are mixed as inflows driven by demand for high-yielding triple-A rated assets are offset by uncertainty over domestic growth, moderation in the price of iron ore and a dovish RBA. However, investor sentiment is bullish AUD, given the net long US$4.7 billion CFTC position as of October 23rd, and risk reversals suggest that option market investors are not currently seeking protection from USD strength
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Central Bank Name: Reserve Bank of Australia
Date of next meeting or last meeting: Nov 06, 2012
Current Rate: 3.250%
Economic events for the month of November affecting AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
Date
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
| |
Nov 1
|
8:15am
|
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment
|
139K
|
162K
|
8:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
371K
|
369K
| |
10:00am
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.4
|
70.3
| |
10:00am
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
8:30pm
|
AUD
|
PPI q/q
|
1.0%
|
0.5%
| |
Nov 2
|
8:30am
|
USD
|
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
123K
|
114K
|
8:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9%
|
7.8%
| |
Nov 4
|
8:30pm
|
AUD
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
0.2%
| |
8:30pm
|
AUD
|
Trade Balance
|
-2.03B
| ||
Nov 5
|
11:00am
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
55.1
| |
11:30pm
|
AUD
|
Cash Rate
|
3.00%
|
3.25%
| |
11:30pm
|
AUD
|
RBA Rate Statement
| |||
Nov 6
|
4:00pm
|
NZD
|
RBNZ Financial Stability Report
| ||
Nov 7
|
5:45pm
|
NZD
|
Employment Change q/q
|
-0.1%
| |
5:45pm
|
NZD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
6.8%
| ||
8:30pm
|
AUD
|
Employment Change
|
14.5K
| ||
8:30pm
|
AUD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
5.4%
| ||
Nov 8
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Trade Balance
|
-44.2B
| |
9:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
| |||
8:30pm
|
AUD
|
RBA Monetary Policy Statement
| |||
Nov 9
|
10:55am
|
USD
|
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
| ||
Nov 14
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core Retail Sales m/m
| ||
9:30am
|
USD
|
PPI m/m
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Retail Sales m/m
| |||
Nov 15
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core CPI m/m
| ||
11:00am
|
USD
|
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
| |||
Nov 18
|
5:45pm
|
NZD
|
Core Retail Sales q/q
| ||
5:45pm
|
NZD
|
PPI Input q/q
| |||
Nov 19
|
11:00am
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales
| ||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Building Permits
| |||
Nov 21
|
10:30pm
|
CNY
|
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
| ||
Nov 22
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
| ||
Nov 27
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
| ||
11:00am
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
| |||
Nov 28
|
11:00am
|
USD
|
New Home Sales
| ||
8:00pm
|
NZD
|
NBNZ Business Confidence
| |||
8:30pm
|
AUD
|
Private Capital Expenditure q/q
| |||
Nov 29
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Prelim GDP q/q
| ||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
| |||
11:00am
|
USD
|
Pending Home Sales m/m
| |||
Nov 30
|
9:00pm
|
CNY
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
Click here to read AUD/USD Technical Analysis.
Originally posted here
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