Outlook and Recommendation
TheEUR/GBP ended the month at 0.8056, against the EUR, the GBP rally is showing signs of fatigue and modest consolidation. However, we do expect GBPUSD to close the year stronger at 1.62. A lot is riding on the BoE meeting and additional eco data to support the Q3 GDP. Markets will need to see positive numbers in housing and manufacturing before the GBP will gain momentum. Given the upward revision to second-quarter GDP, a surprisingly solid 1.0% q/q advance in the third quarter, and early signs of improvements in consumer lending and housing activity as a result of the BoEs Funding for Lending Scheme, traders are reconsidering their outlook for the GBP.
Highest:0.8165
|
Lowest:0.7944
|
Difference:0.0221
|
Average:0.8072
|
Change %:0.83
|
The euro continues to weaken as Spain and Greece do not seem to be getting any better and the situation is unresolved. The fall in EU GDP and the rise in unemployment and debt continue to weigh on the global economy.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide dailyupdates and outlooks.
Central Bank – The Bank of England
Date of next meeting or last meeting: Nov 08, 2012
Current Rate: 0.500%
Economic events for the month of November affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Nov 1
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
48.1
|
48.4
|
8:15am
|
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
|
139K
|
162K
| |
8:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
371K
|
369K
| |
10:00am
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
|
72.4
|
70.3
| |
10:00am
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI
|
51.2
|
51.5
| |
Nov 2
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Construction PMI
|
49.1
|
49.5
|
8:30am
|
USD
|
Non-Farm Employment Change
|
123K
|
114K
| |
8:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9%
|
7.8%
| |
Nov 5
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Services PMI
|
52.2
| |
11:00am
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
55.1
| ||
Nov 6
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing Production m/m
|
-1.1%
| |
Nov 7
|
4:00am
|
CHF
|
Foreign Currency Reserves
|
429.3B
| |
4:15am
|
CHF
|
CPI m/m
|
0.3%
| ||
Nov 8
|
8:00am
|
GBP
|
Asset Purchase Facility
|
375B
| |
8:00am
|
GBP
|
Official Bank Rate
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
| |
8:45am
|
EUR
|
Minimum Bid Rate
|
0.75%
|
0.75%
| |
9:30am
|
USD
|
Trade Balance
|
-44.2B
| ||
Nov 13
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
CPI y/y
| ||
6:00am
|
EUR
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
| |||
6:30am
|
GBP
|
BOE Inflation Report
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core Retail Sales m/m
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
PPI m/m
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Retail Sales m/m
| |||
Nov 15
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales m/m
| ||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core CPI m/m
| |||
9:30am
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
| |||
11:00am
|
USD
|
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
| |||
11:00am
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales
| |||
Nov 20
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Building Permits
| ||
Nov 21
|
5:00am
|
EUR
|
German Ifo Business Climate
| ||
10:30pm
|
CNY
|
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
| |||
Nov 22
|
4:00am
|
EUR
|
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
| ||
4:30am
|
EUR
|
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
| |||
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Public Sector Net Borrowing
| |||
Nov 26
|
5:30am
|
GBP
|
Revised GDP q/q
| ||
Nov 27
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
| ||
11:00am
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence
| |||
11:00am
|
USD
|
New Home Sales
| |||
Nov 29
|
9:30am
|
USD
|
Prelim GDP q/q
| ||
11:00am
|
USD
|
Pending Home Sales m/m
| |||
Nov 30
|
9:00pm
|
CNY
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
Click here a current EUR/GBP Chart.
Originally posted here
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